The 2026 SuperFlex rookie class, by the numbers.

01 · Round one

Round one is doing the lifting.

Two weeks ago we published the methodology piece — twelve years of SuperFlex rookie ADP, mapped against every hit season through 2025. That article was about the rules of the study; this one is about the players.

We ran all 48 names on the 2026 board through the model with three lenses on each: the base rate (history at that ADP, position-filtered), the adjusted rate (scaled for film, situation, and projection), and the composite. The base rate is generic by design. The adjusted and composite numbers are where the real signal lives — that's the lens we're using below.

Here's what the board looks like before your league catches up to it. The single most important thing to internalize about the 2026 class: round one is doing all the heavy lifting.

Average composite 3+ hit rate by round·2026 SuperFlex class · composite lens

The cliff between the first and second is the steepest one in any class we've modeled. That's not a coincidence — the 2026 class is front-loaded with prospects we have genuine conviction on, and the back half of the board is a sea of dart throws. If you're at the 1.07–1.12 turn this year, the math says you should be more willing than usual to reach for the player you've planted your flag on. The drop-off is severe.

The flagship name is the one you'd expect.

Love is the class outlier and it's not particularly close. An 82% adjusted 3+ hit rate is the kind of number we don't hand out — it requires the film, the projection, and the historical comp pool to all be pointing in the same direction. They are. This is the rare 1.01 where consensus and the model agree, and we don't think it's overpriced.

The other call-out from this table is the WR cluster. Tate, Tyson, Lemon, Concepcion, Cooper, and Boston all live in the 40–55% composite range, with Tate and Tyson posting 60% adjusted 3+ numbers behind them. The 2021 hit-rate cut said 1.07–1.12 WR was the most consistent positional bet in the model. The 2026 class is the kind of class that pattern was built for. Boston is the one WR in that group that the adjusted rate suggests caution on. In many other classes, he'd likely be more of a 2nd round pick. He's also behind Fannin Jr. and likely Concepcion in the Cleveland target pecking order.

02 · The fades

Where the model says no.

Now, the opposite side of things.

Most of these are fourth-round darts and there's nothing to flag — the model just confirms what the ADP already implies. But three names jump off the page.

Drew Allar at 3.07. Consensus is still buying NFL draft capital and the relative opportunity in the Pittsburgh QB room (at least long term). The model is not. Third-round QB has a historical 0% 2+ and 0% 3+ rate over the sample window. That's not noise — that's twelve years of consensus being wrong about the exact profile.

Cade Klubnik at 3.10. Same problem, different player. The Clemson tape didn't translate to the projection we needed it to. The composite rate is among the lowest in the entire class. Even worse bet than Allar.

Demond Claiborne at 3.08. Claiborne's going pretty consistently in the third round range, sometimes even earlier than this. He enters a RB room that ironically has Aaron Jones as the presumed starter, one of the few RBs with a rookie draft ADP in the 3rd or later with 3+ hit seasons. While the opportunity is there (Jones is past his prime, Jordan Mason is a rotational back), the model doesn't like betting on Claiborne to be the next back to buck the trend.

If you're holding any of the above, the action is in section six.

03 · Best values

Where consensus is sleeping.

This is the section that earns its keep.

We took each player's projected ADP rank (1–48) and compared it to their rank by composite and adjusted hit rate. Positive value means the model likes the player more than consensus does. Negative value means consensus is paying too much. Below are the ten players where the model says there's a ton of value being left on the table.

Four tight ends in the top five. That's not us putting a thumb on the scale — that's the methodology piece from two weeks ago landing on a specific 2026 class.

The 2021 hit-rate work flagged round-three TE as the highest-EV scouting target in the rookie draft. The 2026 update made that finding more emphatic, not less. And now the model is pointing at three names — Delp, Klare, Raridon — all in round three, all with adjusted 3+ rates in the 28–42% band.

Consensus is treating them like late-round flyers. The history of the position at this ADP range says they’re not.— HIVE Hit-Rate Desk

If your league has a TE-needy roster and you're picking in round three, the play is clear. If you're picking earlier than that and want to trade back, the round three TE pool is the destination.

The non-TE name to circle is Brenen Thompson at 4.06. The film profile screams "draft me earlier," and the adjusted rate (33%) is the kind of number that usually doesn't show up below the third round. He's the lottery ticket worth holding. Especially with the Mike McDaniel pairing.

And the late-first WRs — Concepcion and Cooper — are quietly the best ADP-relative bets in the top of the class. Consensus is taking them roughly where the model puts them, but the model is also saying they're better than that slot suggests. If your league mates aren't fans of the questionable landing spots (Browns + Jets), take advantage. If you own them, hold tight.

04 · The reaches

Where consensus is reaching.

Same exercise, opposite direction. Below are the names the model wants you to fade — players whose hit rate ranks are well below their ADP.

The 2.07–2.12 dead zone we wrote about in the methodology piece doesn't just survive into the 2026 class — it gets worse. Three of the top four reaches live in that exact ADP range, including Branch and Sarratt, two of the most over-drafted names in the class.

Branch is the cleanest example of consensus buying pedigree over profile.— HIVE Hit-Rate Desk

Georgia and a recruiting ranking are doing a lot of work for a player whose model rate is sub-7%. Consensus paying second-round capital for him is the kind of pattern this study was designed to flag.

Singleton is the running back version of the same mistake. Drafted by consensus as a borderline 1.12 / 2.01 because of NFL draft capital. The hit rate model — which is agnostic to where Penn State alums get picked in April — has him outside the top 25 of the class. The RB position at 2.01–2.06 has gotten worse than the back half of round one over the historical sample. Singleton is the 2026 face of that finding.

Ty Simpson at 1.10 is the one we'll get pushback on. He's the consensus QB2 of the class behind Mendoza, and the Alabama starting job is doing real work. The adjusted rate (18%) says the projection isn't there yet. The QB-rich fantasy hit rate model has Simpson as a first-round price for a second-round profile.

05 · Action plan

The round-by-round action plan.

If you're heading into a rookie draft in the next eight weeks, here's the short version.

Round 1, picks 1.01–1.06. Lock in. This is the only range in the entire class where the model gives you a 40%+ composite 3+ rate at every slot. Love at 1.01 is the highest-conviction RB take we've planted a flag on since Bijan. Mendoza at 1.03 is the QB1, and the adjusted rate (65%) says he's a strong-side flag. WRs Tate and Tyson are co-1Bs in a tight tier.

Round 1, picks 1.07–1.12. Stay in the WR pool. Concepcion, Cooper, and (later) Boston are all model-positive at this slot. The TE pair — Sadiq at 1.07 and Stowers at 1.11 — are defensible if you've got a TE need and consensus isn't reaching. The only name in this range we'd fade is Simpson at 1.10.

Round 2. Trade out if you can. If you can't, the front half (2.01–2.06) is a slight model nod toward the WR pool (Antonio Williams, Chris Bell). The back half is the documented dead zone — and Stribling at 2.09 is the only name in that range the model is interested in. The film says he should go close to a round earlier than where consensus is taking him. Quiet flag-plant.

Round 3. Tight end league. Klare, Raridon, Delp — in that order. If your roster has a TE need, this is the round to fill it. The non-TE name to consider is Skyler Bell at 3.04, who shows up cleanly in both lenses. Allar at 3.07 and Claiborne at 3.08 are the traps.

Round 4. Dart throws by definition. The one name worth a real pick: Brenen Thompson. The film says he's a third-round profile that fell.

06 · Move list

The post-draft move list.

If your rookie draft is already done, this section is for you.

Sell high

Nicholas Singleton. NFL draft capital is doing the lifting on his value right now. The model has him outside the top 25 of his own class. Move him while the buyer pool is wide.

Zachariah Branch. Pedigree without a hit rate to back it. The model is brutal.

Ty Simpson. First-round price, second-round profile. The Alabama narrative will keep his market high through the summer. Sell into that.

Carson Beck. The 2025 season was a tape walk-back. The model agrees with what we saw.

Drew Allar. Third-round QB has a historical 0% 2+ rate. The fantasy market hasn't priced that in yet.

Buy low

Brenen Thompson. The single biggest model-vs-consensus gap in the class outside the top of the board. If he's available for late-round capital, take the swing.

Oscar Delp, Eli Raridon, Max Klare. The R3 TE wave. If your league has a manager who already churned through their TE depth, the buy window is open right now.

De'Zhaun Stribling. The 2.09 outlier. Consensus sees a back-half-of-round-two WR. The model sees a borderline second-rounder with the film profile to push higher.

KC Concepcion, Omar Cooper. Not deep buys — both are still being drafted in the back half of round one — but the model says they're priced as floors when they're closer to mid-first ceilings. If a manager in your league is shopping either, that's the call.

07 · The full board

The full board lives behind the Hive Mind.

This is the surface read on the 2026 class. The full 48-player board — every name at every slot, with the film-informed write-ups, the position-specific hit rate context, and the tier breakdowns — is gated behind the Hive Mind.

The Hive Mind is free for the first 1,000 members. Original members get one month on us when the paid tier launches, plus first access to every new tool we drop. We're not at 1,000 yet. Take the spot while it's there.

→ See the full 2026 board on hivefantasy.com